Modeling the Effects of Climate Variability on Aquatic Ecosystem Health in Wetlands

Abstract

Despite being highly valuable systems, wetlands are under increasing threat from changes in the global climate. This study contributes to the management of these threats by developing a robust computational tool that quantifies changes in key wetland health indicators within the Greater Everglades Wetland Complex in response to climatic impacts on hydrology and temperature. A coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model, coded in Python, was developed and integrated with past climatic conditions and downscaled future climatic scenarios derived from CMIP6 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for simulation until 2100. A comparison between modeled results and the historic field data for the years 2010-2025 confirmed the accuracy of the model. Under the worst-case climatic scenario (SSP5-8.5), model simulations showed that changes in the hydroperiod are drastic, leading to a 42% reduction of the suitable habitat for indicator species in 2080 and a substantial movement toward a eutrophic condition. From the sensitivity analysis, mean annual precipitation had the greatest impact on the Habitat Suitability Index, and maximum daily temperature had the greatest impact on the nutrient cycle and water quality. The findings indicate potential reorganization of the biological community, threatening the capacity of wetlands as carbon sinks and natural filters. Adaptive management recommendations were given in terms of managing hydroperiod, restoring riparian buffer zones, and preserving potential refugia from an adaptive management perspective. Though a robust model, it is still subject to uncertainty in atmospheric and ecological processes, yet it provides a reliable basis to support policy decision-making in the climate-impacted aquatic system.