Articles · Open Access Policy
Abstract
Understanding the hydrological response of a catchment under changing climatic conditions is important for permanent water resources planning and management. This study applies soil and water evaluation tools (SWAT) hydrological models to simulate catchment-scale hydrological processes and assess the potential effects of climate change on streamflow, runoff, and evaporation. Historical climate data and estimated landscapes of the Global Climate Model (GCMS) were integrated into the SWAT structure to analyse future hydrological behaviour under various representative concentration pathways (RCPS). Calibration and verification using observation-discharged data revealed strong model performances with high accuracy in reproducing streamflow patterns. The results indicate water yield in response to the estimated temperature and rainfall changes and indicate significant spatial and temporal variations in hydrological extremes. This study highlights the usefulness of SWAT as a strong tool for climate effect analysis, supporting policymakers in developing adaptive strategies for water resource stability in weak catchment areas.