Predicting River Basin Flood Risk Through the HEC HMS Hydrologic Modeling Algorithm

Abstract

 This research utilizes the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to 
assess and forecast flood risks in a river basin by incorporating rainfall-runoff interactions, watershed attributes, and 
land use changes. The model was fine-tuned using historical rainfall and streamflow data, resulting in a high level of 
precision in predicting peak discharge and estimating runoff volumes. Significant factors contributing to flood 
occurrence, such as the growth of impervious surfaces and the intensity of precipitation, were examined to pinpoint 
areas at high risk. The findings illustrate the model’s effectiveness in supporting early warning systems and informing 
flood mitigation efforts. This research highlights the value of HEC-HMS in practical flood risk evaluation and adaptive 
watershed management in the face of shifting climatic conditions. The function of surface water storage in small and 
numerous depressions within the landscape, like wetlands and other small water bodies, is neglected in traditional 
hydrologic modeling techniques. We do not have any data proving how the absence of these features leads to 
inaccurate model predictions and a lack of understanding of hydrologic dynamics in the world's major river basins.